In short: Youngstown St. FCS college football, 2026 season: 6-2 (MVFC). Last game: W 35-22 vs UNI on October 17, 2026. Next: vs North Dakota, October 31, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The battle on the ground could decide Youngstown St.'s next game, against North Dakota, and the recent returns favor Youngstown St.. Youngstown St. allowed 5.4 yards per carry (882 yards on 163 rushes) over its first 5 games (3-2), #107 in FCS in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Penguins have allowed 2.1 yards per carry (181 yards on 85 rushes), a 61% drop, #4 in FCS in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Youngstown St.'s last 3 opponents have averaged 3.6 yards per carry, a #91 rushing attack in FCS on the season, against 4.7 yards per carry, #32 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (3.6 yards per carry), Youngstown St. held those rushing attacks 41% below their usual yards per carry. Meanwhile, North Dakota's ground game has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Fighting Hawks have averaged 4.3 yards per carry (473 yards on 110 rushes) over their last 3 games (1-2), #59 in FCS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of run defenses in FCS (4.5 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #77). North Dakota offers Youngstown St. a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give North Dakota the edge: Youngstown St.'s front grades -1.8 against North Dakota's offensive line at +2.9 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
The number to watch when Youngstown St. meets North Dakota is Youngstown St.'s third-down defense. Youngstown St. allowed 27.6% of third downs (8-for-29) over its first 3 games (2-1), #15 in FCS through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Penguins have allowed 41.5% of third downs (22-for-53), a 50% rise, #77 in FCS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Youngstown St.'s last 5 opponents have averaged 42.4%, a #36 third-down offense in FCS on the season, against 35.1%, #95 for the first 3. Meanwhile, North Dakota's third-down offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Fighting Hawks have converted 33.3% of third downs (17-for-51) over their last 5 games (3-2), #98 in FCS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of third-down defenses in FCS (43.2% on the season, which would rank #83). Against those norms, North Dakota converted third downs 23% less often than those defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
NOTES
Youngstown St.'s red-zone defense looks worse on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Youngstown St. allowed touchdowns on 50% of opponents' red-zone trips (12 of 24) on the season, #25 in FCS, but that number is dragged down by a 4-for-5 against CFB Pirate FBS #5 Kentucky on 9/5. In all other games, Youngstown St. is at 42.1% of opponents' red-zone trips (8 of 19), a figure that would rank #10 in FCS. Against North Dakota, Youngstown St. draws a middle-of-the-pack red-zone offense (61.5%, #35), so expect something closer to the 42.1% version.
The biggest shift in Youngstown St.'s season has come in its ground game. The Penguins averaged 4.6 yards per carry (564 yards on 122 rushes) over their first 4 games (2-2), #40 in FCS within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), Youngstown St. has averaged 6.6 yards per carry (986 yards on 150 rushes), a 42% rise, #7 in FCS across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Youngstown St.'s last 4 opponents have averaged 4.6 yards per carry, a #80 run defense in FCS on the season, against 4.1 yards per carry, #49 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.6 yards per carry), Youngstown St. ran for 43% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, the Penguins rank #11 in FCS in rushing. That form gets a real test against North Dakota, whose run defense ranks #16 in FCS (3.4 yards per carry). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: Youngstown St.'s offensive line and North Dakota's front grade out about even.
Youngstown St. scored touchdowns on 92.9% of its red-zone trips (13 of 14) over its first 3 games (2-1), #1 in FCS during those games. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Penguins have scored touchdowns on 70% of their red-zone trips (14 of 20), a 25% drop, #15 in FCS during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Youngstown St.'s last 5 opponents have averaged 59.1%, a #75 red-zone defense in FCS on the season, against 68%, #115 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (59.1%), Youngstown St. finished red-zone trips 18% more often than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Youngstown St. ranks #1 in FCS in red-zone offense. North Dakota's red-zone defense, #115 of 127 (68.2%), could be the get-right matchup Youngstown St. needs.
Youngstown St.'s offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Penguins averaged 6.8 yards per play (1,741 yards on 257 snaps) over their first 4 games (2-2), #12 in FCS during that stretch. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), Youngstown St. has averaged 7.8 yards per play (2,021 yards on 259 snaps), a 15% rise, #4 in FCS over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.6 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.8 yards per play), Youngstown St. gained 36% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. On the season, the Penguins rank #4 in FCS in yards per play. That form gets a real test against North Dakota, whose defense ranks #12 in FCS (4.9 yards per play). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: Youngstown St.'s offensive line and North Dakota's front grade out about even.
Something changed for Youngstown St.'s third-down offense after its first 3 games. Youngstown St. converted 63.6% of third downs (21-for-33) over its first 3 games (2-1), #2 in FCS over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Penguins have converted 53.7% of third downs (22-for-41), a 16% drop, #2 in FCS over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Youngstown St.'s last 5 opponents have averaged 41.9%, a #75 third-down defense in FCS on the season, against 46.9%, #117 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (41.9%), Youngstown St. converted third downs 28% more often than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Youngstown St. ranks #1 in FCS in third-down offense. North Dakota's third-down defense sits in the middle of the pack, #40 in FCS (37.5%).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Youngstown St. has played one of the toughest schedules in the pool so far (#13 of 130), and what is left is one of the toughest slates (#17 of 129).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#13 of 130
avg opponent rating +22.6 over 8 games · 5 vs top-25 FCS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#17 of 129
avg opponent rating +21.2 over 3 games · 2 vs top-25
Mercyhur… W 43-10@Kentucky L 13-45Duquesne W 70-13@South Da… L 20-27South Da… W 47-28@Southern… W 28-16@Indiana … W 57-24UNI W 35-22North Da…@Murray S…Illinois…
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 17 game; last updated Oct 24; roster and numbers checked Sep 17.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 86.4/100 (+66 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 87.2/100 (+72 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 19.9/100 (+39 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 56.1/100 (-8 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-31
vs
NORTH DAKOTA
6-3
35.1
2026-11-07
at
MURRAY ST.
1-7
14.8
2026-11-14
vs
ILLINOIS ST.
6-2
35.1
LAST YEAR
YS finished 2025 at 8-5. Made the playoffs (3 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 40-35 over ILLINOIS ST. (ILLINOIS ST. finished 71% that season). Toughest loss: 42-43 to YALE (1-point margin).
• [CLUB] Youngstown St. has won 4 straight, and a win would make it 5 in a row -- something they have not done in the 20 seasons on record.
• [CLUB] Youngstown St. has gone 4 straight games holding the opponent under 6.0 yards per play (September 26, 2026 through October 17, 2026), going 4-0 over that stretch, matching the program record of 4 straight on record.
• [CLUB] Youngstown St. is 13-0 all time when allowing 10-19 points in the games on file (13 such games).
• [CLUB] Youngstown St. is 18-2 all time when holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards. Youngstown St.'s last loss when holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards was October 8, 2022 against North Dakota (L, 30-35).
• [CLUB] Youngstown St. has scored 257 points over its last 6 games (42.8 a game, September 12, 2026 through October 17, 2026) -- its most in a 6-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Beau Brungard has gone 20 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• [CLUB] Youngstown St. has gone 8 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (August 27, 2026 through October 17, 2026), going 6-2 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (16 games).
• [PLAYER] Graydon Rollins has 30 tackles over his last 3 games (10.0 a game, September 26, 2026 through October 10, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Ebony Curry has 3 sacks over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 3, 2026 through October 17, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Beau Brungard has gone 4 straight games running for a touchdown, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 8 straight games running for a touchdown, during the 2026 season.
• [PLAYER] Lynn Wyche-el has gone 2 straight games recording 100+ receiving yards, the longest such streak of his career.
• [PLAYER] Lynn Wyche-el has gone 2 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 4 straight games catching a touchdown pass, during the 2026 season.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
YS HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• YS rushes for 100+ yards (.596), and has won 6 straight when doing so
• YS holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.900), and has won 16 straight when doing so
• YS holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.652), and has won 6 straight when doing so
• YS averages 6.0+ yards per play (.750), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• YS's defense has averaged 60.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 72-game average is 155.9 rush yards per game. (-61%)
• YS averages 4.5+ yards per carry (YS's own median) (.778)
• YS's defense has averaged 2.1 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 72-game average is 4.9 YPC. (-58%)
• YS rushes for 174.5+ yards (YS's own median) (.750)
• YOUNGSTOWN ST. has held the opponent under 100 rushing in 3 straight games (10/3/26–10/17/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• YOUNGSTOWN ST. has won 4 straight (9/26/26–10/17/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• YOUNGSTOWN ST. has had a 100-yard receiver in 2 straight games (10/10/26–10/17/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• YOUNGSTOWN ST. has allowed 250+ passing in 3 straight games (10/3/26–10/17/26). It has not allowed 250+ passing in 4 straight since 11/8/25–11/29/25 (2025).
YS's defense has averaged 60.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 72-game average is 155.9 rush yards per game. (-61%)
YS's defense has averaged 2.1 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 72-game average is 4.9 YPC. (-58%)
YS's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 72-game average is 1.2 takeaways per game. (-44%)
YS's defense has averaged 20.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 72-game average is 30.6 points allowed per game. (-32%)
YS's defense has averaged 301.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 72-game average is 237.8 pass yards per game. (+27%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where YOUNGSTOWN ST. sits among 130 FCS teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 86.8, Defense Grade 38.0.
YARDS / PLAY: YOUNGSTOWN ST. VS THE FCS
YOUNGSTOWN ST. ranks #4 of 130 FCS teams in yards per play (7.29) -- a strength worth a look.
YOUNGSTOWN ST.: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- -2.0 in 2022 to 8.2 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
3.23 points per offensive possession (77 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 66.7% success rate, 66.7% explosive play rate (6 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
3
rush 100%
1 & medium
12
rush 67%, pass 33%
1 & long
202
rush 51%, pass 46%, sack 3%
2 & short
20
rush 60%, pass 40%
2 & medium
51
rush 55%, pass 45%
2 & long
70
pass 59%, rush 37%, sack 4%
3 & short
20
rush 75%, pass 25%
3 & medium
32
pass 50%, rush 47%, sack 3%
3 & long
22
pass 59%, rush 36%, sack 5%
4 & short
7
rush 57%, pass 43%
4 & medium
3
pass 67%, rush 33%
4 & long
1
pass 100%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
5 of 7 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: +13.6 final vs. +10.3 before garbage time — this team pads its margins (+3.3 pts/game)
Biggest swing: 18 points, vs. Duquesne on 2026-09-12 (+57 final, +39 real)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
Final 2 Minutes (SKILL): DORIAN WILLIAMS — 106 yds, 7 touches
Final 2 Minutes (DEFENSE): DANNY INGLIS — 1 tackles
ADVANCED METRICS EXPLAINED (9)
EPA / Dropback
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
Red Zone Splits
How a player performed once his team's offense (or the opponent's, for a defender) reached inside the 20-yard line.
Inputs: Every play on file within 20 yards of the goal line (`distance_to_goal <= 20`) this player was involved in. COVERAGE CAVEAT: true field position is only recorded for about a third of plays leaguewide, concentrated in FBS/FCS games -- a player whose games come from a source without it will show thin or missing red-zone splits even if he played plenty of red-zone snaps. This is a gap in the underlying play-by-play data, not a sign he didn't play there.
Final 2 Minutes of a Half
How a player performed in the last two minutes of either half -- the clock-management, high-pressure stretch at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Inputs: Every play on file in the 2nd or 4th quarter with 2:00 or less on the clock this player was involved in. Same field-position/clock coverage caveat as Red Zone Splits above -- roughly a third of plays leaguewide carry a usable clock reading, concentrated in FBS/FCS games.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
10/29/2026 11:08
